Tuesday, 17 July, 2018

OPEC enters meeting that could set direction of oil prices

Crude Oil Crude Oil
Elsie Buchanan | 22 June, 2018, 15:28

Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh arrives at his hotel ahead of a meeting of OPEC oil ministers in Vienna, Austria, June 19, 2018.

Opec in theory needs the agreement of all members to clinch a deal but has in the past agreed production pacts without Iran, which has criticised the idea of raising supply as it faces USA sanctions.

OPEC may be unable to bridge the divide, as Bloomberg reported that ministers at Thursday's meeting agreed to a nominal increase of 1 million bpd despite Iran's opposition. Oil traded as low as $27 in 2016.

That would effectively mean a modest boost from producers such as Saudi Arabia that has been cutting more deeply than planned despite production outages in Venezuela and Libya.

"I'm confident that at the end of the day reason will prevail", Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih told reporters in Vienna after a succession of meetings.

Iran is usually not part of the committee, which includes Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait, Algeria and Venezuela.

It was up 1.2 per cent at $73.95 a barrel at 1:13 pm in Singapore on Friday.

A decision to increase output could be taken even with Iran refusing to sign up, as has happened before in OPEC.

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House of Representatives that fall far short of addressing the needs of refugees, dreamers, and other undocumented immigrants. Trump's said the order does not alter the " zero tolerance " policy itself that the administration put in place in April.


Saudi Arabia's proposal for 1 million bpd likely would result in an actual increase of 600,000-800,000 bpd as some members like Venezuela are unable to ramp up, sources told CNBC.

Also of concern was the U.S. immigration crisis after Trump backed off an unpopular hardline policy that had led to children being separated from their parents when they crossed illegally into the United States from Mexico.

"We want to prevent the shortage and the squeeze that we saw in 2007-08", Falih said, referring to a time when shortages sent premium-crude-oil prices soaring to an unprecedented $150 per barrel and ushered in a major boom-bust cycle that devastated the oil sector for a decade.

Earlier this week, Zanganeh left the door open for a deal, saying Opec members that had overdelivered on cuts in recent months should comply with agreed quotas.

"OPEC is an independent organization, not an organization to receive instruction from President Trump", Zanganeh said on Tuesday.

Iraq's energy minister said it was clear that Opec and its allies would change course after 18 months of production curbs, in an effort to rebalance crude supply and demand.

Mr. Pradhan went on to say that the prices of oil and gas had become subject to the "vagaries of geopolitics" and urged the OPEC countries to commit towards ensuring more sustainable prices. The International Energy Agency, which represents consuming nations, expects demand to grow more slowly in the second half of this year partly due to rising oil prices - but still 1.35 million barrels a day higher than the same period in 2017. The two top crude oil suppliers to China are Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia, with Russian Federation beating the Saudis for the top spot in each of the past 13 months.

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