South Korea has bought no Iranian crude oil for about three months: SHANA
24 September, 2018, 20:54
"We're on the verge of some significant volatility in Q4 2018 because depending on the severity and duration of the Iranian sanctions, the market simply does not have an adequate supply response for a 2 million barrel a day disappearance of oil from the markets", Jaeggi said.
Sunday's meeting in Algiers brought together OPEC oil ministers and non-OPEC signatories to the 2016 agreement as they seek to extend their cooperation.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are trading sharply higher on Monday, shortly before the cash market opening after OPEC held its ground over the weekend and declined to agree to an immediate increase in output despite last week's pressure by President Trump to do so. "We're looking at $68 [average] for this year and $73 for 2019".
It could prompt Washington to consider extraordinary measures, including the use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, to cool down fuel prices ahead of the USA mid-term elections.
OPEC and Russian Federation have capped production since January 2017 to bolster prices.
Dated Brent could see the biggest overhaul since the North Sea crude became a benchmark more than 30 years ago as S&P Global Platts considers including oil from as far away as Central Asia, West Africa and USA shale fields in its price assessment. That suggests OPEC's power to influence the market will be tempered by US production for about another decade.
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al Falih also ruled out the need to use spare capacity to increase oil output. "The reason Saudi Arabia didn't increase more is because all of our customers are receiving all of the barrels they want".
"Oil demand will be declining in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year".
Sales of Iranian crude have fallen as buyers remain wary of penalties from sanctions due to take effect from November.
What may be happening is that physical oil consumers, such as refiners, are locking in supplies further along the curve in anticipation of price rises, while the front-end of the paper markets are being driven higher by investor flows seeking to take advantage of increasing media coverage of a tighter market.
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