Saturday, 17 November, 2018

Oil falls on oversupply worries despite Iran sanctions

Oil Drops on Stock-Market Swings Chinese Bank Stops Iranian Oil Transactions Ahead of US Sanctions
Elsie Buchanan | 28 October, 2018, 19:50

ConocoPhillips' earnings quadrupled as third-quarter earnings came in at 1.9 billion, or 1.59 per share, up from $400 million, or United States 0.34 per share, compared to earnings for the third quarter of previous year.

Saudi Arabia's OPEC governor said on Thursday that the oil market could face oversupply in the current quarter.

"We (have) entered the stage of worrying about this increase", Al-Falih told state broadcaster al-Ekhbariya.

Secondly, with European companies leaving Iran for fear of being sanctioned, Chinese companies that are more protected and can not be sanctioned by the USA, are now free to enter the Iranian energy market and stand to benefit greatly from deals originally designed for European companies. OPEC signaled Thursday it could cut output next year due to concerns about rising oil inventories and economic uncertainty, changing its position from just a few days ago of pumping flat out.

The great fear of a shortage of global crude is subsiding as Saudi Arabia warned this week that we're in danger of having to manage a surplus.

For the U.S.to pursue both Iran sanctions and toughening trade policy at the same time "is a really big risk", said Philip Verleger, an energy economist.

Mohammadbagher Forough, a research associate at the Clingendael Institute and assistant professor of International Relations at Leiden University explained to Qantara.de that the USA sanctions against Iran are a ideal economic and energy opportunity for China for three reasons.

Turkey to reveal truth of Saudi journalist's murder
A Turkish official said on Monday that the country will go until the end to enlighten the "nefarious murder" of Khashoggi. Labour's leadership seized on the events in Istanbul to call for arms sales to Saudi Arabia to be halted.


But if oil demand continues to rise-and Iranian exports are curtailed-prices could rise dramatically. Reuters reported earlier that the companies made no bookings for November-loading Iranian oil.

Thursday's trading was said to be driven once again entirely by sentiment. USA efforts to isolate Iran and its crude output, as well as spiraling Venezuelan production, haven't been enough to serve as a geopolitical counterweight to the selloff.

Given that Saudi Arabia's share of oil production is well beyond the spare production capacity of the world's most important commodity, Saudi Arabia has incredible economic power.

Consider the oil price movements since 2014.

While this has helped the world meet rising demand for years, it can not go on forever. This week, Halliburton Co. Chief Executive Jeff Miller said its oil-producing clients were facing "budget exhaustion" and he expected some to take extended breaks from drilling new shale wells.

He is a daily contributor to Fox Business Network where he provides daily market updates and analysis.

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